21 May 2008

Obama, part 2

Looking towards November, Marc Ambinder outlines the important questions regarding Obama's weak support among white/rural/less educated/lower income Democrats.

"Are the demographics of Obama's coalition so skewed (in terms of previous coalitions) that his national lead will greatly overstate his relative strength in the electoral college? Or is Obama's new coalition so robust as to absorb some of the bleeding of white, working class men in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and still end up winning?"

First of all, it is very important that Senator Obama never use a phrase like "the bleeding of white, working class men." But the critical question his campaign must address is how his "coalition" will translate to the electoral map. Here's one good discussion of the topic.

1 comment:

John Potter said...

His coalition has the potential to "change the map." You only need to point to massive turnout among the young, African-Americans, and new voters as evidence against the idea that this is a naive argument.

I'm on board the Obama/Richardson train, partially because I think it has potential to create a coalition that could still win, even given McCain winning some white, working class votes. Also, you've got to assume (especially if she campaigns hard for him) that a lot of the Clinton-vote furor will die down as they get closer to facing Obama vs. McCain.